Rumble Strip

State of the Union

2007-01-24T09:24:00.000-10:00

I guess the most notable thing I heard was "the challenge of global climate change." The words were actually spoken, this time without denial or qualifiers. Hmm.

Some of the topics were clear non-starters. That health insurance idea, for example. Higher fuel efficiency standards he's fought for years. Energy independence. I was surprised ANWR wasn't explicitly mentioned.

But then I was surprised New Orleans wasn't mentioned. Maybe we're just supposed to forget about it.

And then there were the ghosts from State of the Unions past. What about Mars? What about our glorious moonbase? Oops, down the memory hole.

Overall, the President seemed like ... like ... what's that quote, it's in the back of my mind ... oh yeah:

a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

That about sums it up. We've got our very own Macbeth, in the White House.

I don't know about you, but I find the idea of President Macbeth more than a little disturbing ....

It makes my spirit sore

2007-01-23T23:23:00.000-10:00

The State of the Union speech. But the Democratic response, from Senator Webb, was a breath of fresh air from the reality-based community. Maybe I'll have more comments later.

Ok, I'm going to do it

2007-01-23T18:43:00.000-10:00

I'm going to watch the State of the Union speech. I wasn't going to, but I will. Not that anyone cares, but still. It's not going to be live, but I'll watch and maybe comment later. I have the beer and nuts out and ready. Should be entertaining. I look forward to seeing the new Speaker of the House behind the President while he speaks.

That about sums it up

2007-01-23T06:59:00.000-10:00

Patriotism is a lovely thing. In its name, some go dying by the side of an Iraqi road in twitching agony; others go shopping in oversized automobiles festooned with yellow ribbons. We all play our part—and nobody else's.

Read the whole piece

October Surprise Revisited (invoking Noonan's Law)

2006-11-17T15:37:00.000-10:00

The widely expected October Surprise, a U.S. attack on Iran occurring on or around October 21, shortly after the Eisenhower carrier battle group arrived in the Persian Gulf, failed to materialize. Widely expected because the continuous drumbeat for war with Iran had been increasing since 2005, reaching a crescendo in late August and early September of 2006. And you know what I mean by drumbeat, from the media talking heads, pundits, politicians, and so-called experts.

Following almost exactly the same script as was used in the run-up to the attack on Iraq, as noted by numerous critics and commentators. You could look it up if you doubt me. Iran must be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons!

Leading, so the storyline went, to a Republican triumph in the November midterm elections as Americans patriotically united behind the president and the troops.

But the drumbeat abruptly stopped in September. Just stopped. Other important, newsworthy events occurred, of course, but the drumbeat never resumed. Think about that just for a moment.

Recall the lead-up to the attack on Iraq. The drumbeat never stopped. Never. Even when other important, newsworthy events occurred, the drumbeat continued. So there must be some reason why the drumbeat stopped this time, especially with the midterm elections and Democratic control of one or both houses of congress in the balance.

After the drumbeat had stopped, in early October, North Korea tested a nuclear weapon. Against all reason, for no reason, to the condemnation of the world community. Which they must have known they would face, along with the certainty of sanctions from the world community as well. So North Korea clearly had nothing, or almost nothing, to be gained from a nuclear test. In my humble uninformed opinion.

I invoke Noonan's Law. Would it be irresponsible to speculate? It would be irresponsible not to.

These two events are connected. The widely expected attack on Iran to prevent it from gaining nuclear weapons was called off because Iran already has nuclear weapons. Which they purchased from North Korea. And the means to deliver them, such as antiship missles and surface to surface missles, which they also purchased from North Korea. It is this information, leaked through appropriate back-channel sources, that caused the drumbeat to stop.

And since leaking this information through the appropriate back-channel sources might be considered a bluff by the wackos beating the war drums, the obliging North Koreans tested one of their nukes to demonstrate (prove) that they work as advertised. Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. And no need for those oil deliveries. And after that no chance that drumbeat to war with Iran will restart.

Because while a successful attack on Iran might have resulted in a Republican victory in the midterm elections, this news forced other alternatives to be considered. An unsuccessful attack. Such as the loss of a couple aircraft carrier battle groups to nuclear antiship missles. Or the loss of a carrier battle group and Tel Aviv to nuclear missles. Either or both of these would probably not have led to a Republican victory. In fact the loss would probably have been even greater than it was.

So there was no attack on Iran before the elections. The October Surprise was pre-empted. I don't think there will be an attack on Iran. And I will consider that proof that my speculation is correct. Don't hold your breath waiting for the drumbeat to war with Iran to restart.

Majority Leader Rules

2006-11-17T15:00:00.000-10:00

Blogger has thoughtfully eaten my last few posts. Or perhaps it's user error, since I'm still pretty new to this blogging stuff. But the news about the new House Majority Leader indicates a trend to me. He who has the funniest name wins. And clearly Steny Hoyer is a funnier name than John Murtha.

Consider the historical sequence: Dick Gephardt, Dick Armey, Tom Delay, Roy Blunt, John Boehner, Steny Hoyer. Since at least the 101st Congress, the one thing they all have in common is that they're funny names.

Proving this true would require actual research which I have neither time nor interest in doing at the moment, to show the winner in each case had a funnier name than the alternatives. Which could be a problem if one of the alternatives was ever Newt Gingrich.

But for now, I note the trend and move on to see if I can recover any of the other posts blogger ate.

Possibly the best screen capture ever!

2006-10-25T10:16:00.000-10:00

I haven't had any time to blog, and I had some other ideas for blog posts I don't have time for, but this won't take much time and just can't wait.

Via TBogg, who has demonstrated an uncanny skill in the art of screen capture, possibly the best portrait of Michelle Malkin ever taken. From a certain point of view. Expressing, as all good portraits must, the essential nature of the individual.

Note especially the caption and screen crawl, essential elements of the entire, um, composition of the artistic work. Oh heck, let me spell it out. "Michelle Malkin, author of the book "Unhinged", is also suspected of killing the baby girl's mother." There. And look at her expression! The best screen capture ever!

Earthquake!

2006-10-15T18:04:00.000-10:00

You've probably heard about the earthquake in Hawaii today. I had some ideas for a blog post today, but they have been preempted. Big things happen early Sunday mornings in Hawaii. At least the earthquake didn't happen on December 7th.

A little after 7 am Hawaii time a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck off the Kona coast of the big island of Hawaii. The word from emergency services was that no tsunami was generated. That turns out to have been incorrect, but the tsunami was only 4 inches high, so no big deal.

There was a lot of damage on the big island, but no serious injuries. Considerably less damage on the other islands, and again no serious injuries. But electricity was knocked out pretty much statewide for most of the day. So no blogging for most of the day.

No major damage on Oahu. The shaking lasted for almost a minute, but to the earthquake experienced it was obviously not close by. Enough to be really scarey for the earthquake-inexperienced. Having lived most of my life in California on or near the San Andreas and Hayward faults, I've been through enough to tell. It felt to me like about a 4.4-ish quake. I was a little concerned because I've never been through a quake in the building we're living in, but it's a wood-frame structure, and they're generally pretty good in quakes.

It shook for a while after the quake was over. A little disquieting but not unexpected. But the worst was no electricity, which meant no coffee and no computer. So no internet, no news, no blogging. We tuned the little hand-crank emergency radio to a working station for our news.

Your basic earthquake has two major shaking components: the p-wave and the s-wave. The p-wave travels faster, but looses strength more quickly. The s-wave travels more slowly and holds its strength longer. So if you're really close to the epicenter, they both arrive at about the same time. If you're further away, the p-wave gets there first, then the s-wave. Far enough away they arrive separately, and you can tell the difference. The p-wave is vertical: it lifts you up, then drops back down, sometimes sharply. The s-wave is the horizontal , with the shaking most people associate with an earthquake. Even further away, the p-wave is too weak to feel, and you only get the s-wave. That's what we had when the earthquake struck us.

So it was obviously not too close. A reassuring thought when the first aftershock hit a few minutes later. There was a reportedly a third aftershock soon after as well but we didn't feel it. Nor any of the other later aftershocks.

Now you know how to tell how close you are to an earthquake epicenter from the way the earthquake feels. And remember, if you are able to pay attention to those details, it's probably not a serious earthquake where you are (although it could be serious somewhere else).

There was no significant surf today, but it wasn't really a beach day anyway. Before and after the earthquake, it was overcast, rainy, windy at times, and just to add extra incentive to avoid the beach, a box jellyfish warning also in effect.

Death in Iraq

2006-10-14T09:18:00.000-10:00

So. Experts in the subject using a standard, proven technique survey a large sample of households in Iraq. Their samples are taken from around the country except for two regions which are too dangerous to visit.

Their conclusion is that a huge number of "excess deaths" have occurred since the U.S. invasion, between 400,000 and 800,000 with the most probable value at about 655,000.

Widespread responses from those who favored going to war say that result is far too high. Implausibly high, in fact. Even though they were unable to sample parts of the country that were too dangerous to visit.

The people conducting the survey are experts in the field. They are using proven techniques approved and supported by the U.S. government. At least in places other than Iraq. They know what they are doing. Their work was not suspect in Bosnia, nor in Sudan. And in Sudan the data are probably less reliable. And it's quite possible, even likely, that in Bosnia and in Sudan there were places that could not be surveyed because they were too dangerous to visit. Yet results from those places have not generated any outcry, nor have they been disputed. Quite the opposite. The results of surveys in Sudan are cited as reason for international intervention in the region.

So here's a question. If a study of this sort leaves out places that are too dangerous to visit, doesn't that mean the results of the study are more likely to be too low? I mean really, if there are places that are too dangerous to visit, it's because those places have a higher than normal death rate.

So if those regions that were too dangerous to visit had been included, we would expect the actual number of excess deaths to be even higher. Significantly higher, because those regions were too dangerous to visit.

It follows from this reasoning that actual number of excess deaths in Iraq due to the war is much greater.

That is why aggressive, unprovoked war has been considered an international crime since the Nuremberg Trials. And why those who initiate aggressive, unprovoked war are considered international war criminals.

What does that make those who favored an aggressive, unprovoked war in Iraq?

Duck and Cover

2006-10-09T08:08:00.000-10:00

The always excellent Digby's Hullabaloo has an excellent post on the October Surprise in North Korea.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that an administration dominated by oilmen was preoccupied with the hypothetical nuclear threat posed by oil-rich Iran while it resoloutly ignored the actual nuclear threat posed by oil-poor North Korea.

After all, their job is to protect us, isn't it? That's what they keep saying.

Seems unbelievable

2006-10-09T07:31:00.001-10:00

Perhaps you've heard of the celebrated ceramic toad of osaka. Which at the height of its power controlled a stock portfolio of over $20 billion. For some reason I was recently reminded of this story. A correspondent for the Financial Times invested some considerable effort in trying to trace the fate of the ceramic amphibian, alas without success.

While I was browsing the web for more information about the toad, I inadvertently discovered the thought-provoking controversy over the existence of Idaho. One of my friends was away fror several years. He claimed to have lived in Idaho during that time. Said he got married, got divorced, and moved back. I accepted the story at the time. Now I'm not so sure.

Tourist Advice

2006-10-06T15:53:00.000-10:00

Next time you visit beautiful Hanauma Bay in Hawaii on the island of Oahu - and when you come to the island you really should visit, it has some of the best and easiest snorkling in Hawaii - don't set up your things too close to the hillside. Even though it's shady and there's a lawn, so you don't have to worry about sand being kicked up into your things.

There's nothing wrong with being in the shade on a tropical beach, and there's also nothing wrong with being on the lawn rather than the sand. But if you're too close to the hillside the mongooses will come out while you're in the water, rummage through your belongings, and steal and drag off your snacks. Except for your fritos. For some reason they leave those behind.

The tourist authorities always warn you not to leave stuff in your car to tempt human thieves. They don't warn you about the non-human thieves.

Consider yourselves warned. You'll have a good time anyway, you just won't have as many snacks.

Yesterday's News Tomorrow

2006-10-04T09:17:00.000-10:00

With all the hoo-hah over underage pages and torture, a number of items may have slipped under your radar. Here's a quick sampling of some tidbits I've found off-line. I may update with links later when I find them.

Sony continues to have battery recall headaches.

Kazakhstan president Nursultan Nazarbayev visits the White House. Possibly to give pointers on torture, indefinite detention, and extrajudicial execution, from the leader of one free country to another. He's the one whose opponents end up dead in apparent suicide from multiple gunshot wounds to the chest and head, or kidnapped in groups and executed in remote locations, apparently by contract killers. It's the other guy in Uzbekistan who boils opponents alive.

Amnesty International says the US policy of offering bounties for suspected terrorists has created a black market in abductions in Pakistan. Innocent people are being kidnapped and sold to the US as terrorist suspects. Makes you proud to be an American.

Corrupt deposed Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra missed the grand opening of the new Bangkok International Airport, a signiture project of his reign. Anti-corruption investigators have begun what is expected to be a long, long probe into claims of widespread corruption.

Greek GDP has surged 25% following a revision of national economic output that more fully accounts for growth in the service sector, including formerly overlooked subsectors such as prostitution and money laundering. EU spokesmen were surprised by the revision, which raised some eyebrows. Revisions like this are common in EU member states, but are typically in the 1% to 2% range. If approved the revision will make it easier for Greece to meet the EU budget deficit ceiling of 3%. However, it will also increase the requird contribution to the EU budget, and decrease the greek EU subsidy for poor countries.

A growing belief that the US economy will achieve a "soft landing" has spurred global stock markets to new gains. The Dow closed with a new all-time high, breaking the previous record set in 2000. So if you had invested $1000.00 in the Dow index companies at that time, you'd now have $1000.34. If you more wisely diversified your portfolio using the S&P 500, over the same period, you'd still unfortunatly be about $100 short of breaking even. Financial Times didn't quite put it this way.

Of course there's more. I tried to post this earlier from a mobile device but it ate the post. User error I think. I'm still new at this blogging stuff.

Laura Ingraham is Wrong. And Insane.

2006-09-29T13:53:00.000-10:00

Watching the TV show "24" does not constitute an endorsement of torture.

Americans who watch the TV show "24" are not demonstrating that they approve of torturing terrorist suspects.

They are watching a TV show. For entertainment. A fictional action adventure drama. Not real life.

Americans who watch the movie "Hostel" are not endorsing the recreational torture-for-pay of randomly kidnapped tourists by wealthy individuals, are they Laura?

No, they are watching a scary horror movie. For entertainment. A fictional story.

The fictional part is what makes them acceptable.

Neither is acceptable in real life. Normal people know that.

Why is this insane wacko on TV at all?

Jumping off a cliff

2006-09-25T11:10:00.000-10:00

This is my first foray into the brave new world of blogging. I'm jumping in for the first time.

Everyone has a large number of memorable firsts in their life, which form a sort of continuum.

Many of those firsts are things that everyone else also experiences, such as learning to read, or ride a bicycle, or losing virginity, which, while memorable, are often less interesting for others than for oneself because of their commonality. Unless one's own experience of the event is truly exceptional, such as learning to ride a bicycle in a minefield during a revolutionary uprising while on fire.

Other firsts are truly exceptional and unique, such as being the first walk on the moon. This is the other extreme end of the continuum. Very few people have walked on the moon. Very few will ever be able to. And only one could be the first.

The first time blogging is more on the unexceptional side. Yet it feels like a big step. Like jumping off a cliff.

I still remember the first time I jumped off a cliff.

A friend and I had been working a short-term temporary job. We were still teenagers in high school, and had finished for the day at midafternoon. We had the option of waiting for parents to pick us up, or walking. Neither was a good option; waiting for parents would involve waiting, probably for a long time, and walking would involve a long walk out of our way because we were up a steep hillside. And in either case we had to be somewhere else soon, for some reason I don't recall. I told him there was no way we could get there in time.

"Don't worry", he said, "I know a short cut. Follow me! We have to run!"

And he started running, around the building, across the yard, towards a low rock wall.

"When we get to the wall, jump on top, and then jump off as far as you can", he said.

And then he sped up. He was about 10 feet ahead of me. As we approached the wall he sped up. I assumed there must be a ditch or something on the other side of the wall. He jumped onto the wall, and then off. I followed, jumped onto the same spot on the wall, and leaped off.

As my direction of motion became more vertical than horizontal I realized there was no ditch. The rock wall was at the edge of a cliff. At the bottom of the cliff a steep hillside began, covered with scattered trees, bushes, ferns, and brambles: blackberry and poison oak bushes. A beautiful California hillside from almost any perspective except the one I had at the moment.

I don't know how far we fell, but it was far enough for a brief conversation. As a looked at him falling about 10 feet below me I said "Oh Great. Now what do we do?"

He looked up at me. "Ski!", he said brightly as he fell.

"Ski? What the hell does that mean? It's the middle of summer, there's no snow, and I've never been skiing", I replied as I fell

A look of concern crossed his face briefly when I said I'd never been skiing before. Too late now, of course.

"You'll just have to learn fast, it's easy! I didn't know either! Just watch me and do what I do!", he said. Again brightly. Too brightly by half, I felt. But I watched what he was doing.

Falling. Off a cliff down toward a steep hillside covered with trees and bushes.

Immediately below us was a small bare spot of hard dirt near the top of the steep green hillside. Just before he landed on it he said, "You just ski! Like this!"

He hit the spot and bounced off to the side and down, past a tree and down towards another bare spot on the steep hillside. I did the same, bouncing toward the next bare spot, following him down the hill. The hillside whizzed by in a blur of green and brown as we bounced back and forth down the hillside from one bare spot to another. There were a number of close calls as we zig-zagged down the hillside. Finally the hillside began leveling off, and we began running again, about a hundred yards to the bottom of the hill. This was the local kids' shortcut down the hillside. I assume their parents never knew about it. One would hope.

We did make it in time to wherever it was we were going.

Later that same day, I asked my parents for something or other. All my friends could do whatever it was.

They asked me the famous parent question in response:

"If your friends jumped off a cliff, would you follow them?"

I could truthfully say yes, as it happens, I would, and already had. Earlier that same day.

My parents still did not grant permission for whatever it was, but being able to answer yes to that age-old parent to child question more than made up for it.

Hopefully the same will be true of blogging.

In case you were wondering, no, I don't remember the second time I jumped off a cliff. But I do remember the third. Those were both deliberate, intentional events. I wasn't following anybody. And they were different cliffs. I've never jumped of the same cliff twice.